Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 11.971024 13.986645 16.191694 18.776907 21.718313 24.954230 28.776824
2024-11-03 9.340682 12.212683 15.665151 20.091167 25.581441 32.132543 40.501775
2024-11-10 7.429832 10.712556 14.990999 20.902709 28.774375 38.800081 52.423496
2024-11-17 6.105030 9.594089 14.472564 21.658367 31.811384 45.455875 64.947694
2024-11-24 4.889402 8.327940 13.458427 21.467447 33.400081 50.212804 75.298666
2024-12-01 3.838038 7.064306 12.185300 20.627089 33.836279 53.267727 83.420714
2024-12-08 3.075557 6.092161 11.166025 19.961479 34.352122 56.358886 91.721926
2024-12-15 2.617738 5.541389 10.720812 20.107218 36.074755 61.324846 103.130872
2024-12-22 2.184049 4.940563 10.081167 19.810741 36.996960 65.059642 112.859856
2024-12-29 1.994180 4.771913 10.180225 20.792238 40.126033 72.530762 129.008526
2025-01-05 1.762997 4.469344 9.974963 21.177505 42.227223 78.432645 142.976557
2025-01-12 1.542760 4.143590 9.669916 21.322950 43.887166 83.679570 156.173424
2025-01-19 1.345126 3.836979 9.375227 21.487209 45.665265 89.388863 170.790442
2025-01-26 1.284209 3.847964 9.757435 23.065309 50.282649 100.490646 195.572349
2025-02-02 1.180196 3.728557 9.835476 24.020856 53.781358 109.832001 217.875990
2025-02-09 1.081465 3.600747 9.873298 24.890249 57.181356 119.223896 240.863074
2025-02-16 0.932197 3.296836 9.446592 24.680461 58.355046 124.509250 256.668895
2025-02-23 0.768523 2.906276 8.738643 23.732396 57.877760 126.571750 266.578118
2025-03-02 0.640404 2.587085 8.152070 22.980081 57.723710 129.219198 277.715935
2025-03-09 0.567668 2.427022 7.957645 23.145344 59.588903 136.003312 297.215139
2025-03-16 0.487054 2.215676 7.583571 22.809901 60.285367 140.442664 312.361632
2025-03-23 0.462340 2.199987 7.765337 23.920575 64.403266 152.214929 342.741528
2025-03-30 0.419911 2.104674 7.695331 24.356334 66.964188 160.856535 367.239012